SpaceX Burned $18.4 Billion Last Quarter. Most Went to AI.

Goldman Sachs just picked a side.

On Wednesday, the bank published The Second Space Age. Its core claim: the global space economy will reach $1.8 trillion by 2035. And the firms that control launch will win big.

That's a bold call.

It landed at the right time. SpaceX had just ripped 35% in five sessions. That rally added roughly $500 billion in market value. SPCX closed Wednesday near $146. AST SpaceMobile gained 4%. Rocket Lab and Firefly each rose about 1%.

All on the same week Goldman called space "a new pillar of the industrial economy."

Let me explain why this report matters more than most.

Goldman calls launch the "chokepoint" of the space economy. In other words, every satellite, every crew capsule, every ton of cargo has to ride a rocket first. Control the gate… collect the toll.

The tollbooth thesis.

And the data supports it. Space Capital tracked $31.6 billion invested in 129 space firms last quarter. Six of the top ten deals were satellite companies. SpaceX went public that same quarter — the largest IPO in history, priced at $135 a share.

But here's the wrinkle.

Morningstar values SPCX at $62. One star. That means 58% downside from the current price. Goldman sees a $1.8 trillion boom ahead. Morningstar sees a stock worth less than half what it trades for.

So who's right?

I think both are. Goldman is pricing the industry. Morningstar is pricing the stock. Those are two very different bets.

Look at the math. SpaceX posted $7.8 billion in Q2 revenue — up 92% from a year ago. Starlink added 1.7 million net subs in three months… its best quarter ever. Government and business revenue more than doubled.

But SpaceX also burned $18.4 billion on capex last quarter. Most of it — $15.8 billion — went to AI, not rockets.

That's the pivot. Musk told staff last week that AI revenue will pass all other SpaceX revenue by September. He's guiding to a $100 billion annual run rate by December.

Now, I know what you're thinking. Those targets sound wild.

And they might be. Huge claims and proven cash flow are not the same thing. Goldman's own model pencils in about $15.6 billion in total AI revenue for all of 2026 — well below the run rate Musk is implying. If AI delivers, the stock is cheap. If it doesn't, the Morningstar bears take the round.

You don't have to pick a side today. But you do need to know the stakes.

A top-five Wall Street bank just called space a pillar of the industrial economy. That line came from Goldman Sachs… not a pitch deck from a seed-stage startup. It carries weight.

Watch late August. Another wave of insider shares unlocks.

We'll see.

Where should you invest $100 right now?

Elon Musk just invented and patented this new AI technology…

And he's predicting it will launch a NEW industry that will grow more than 7 million percent in the coming years.

Even if he's only 10% right, that would still be enough to grow $100 into more than $700,000.

Click here to see the details on what Elon Musk called "an infinite money glitch."

The core of Goldman's call. The report names launch the sector's upstream "chokepoint," warning that whoever controls it can seize outsized returns. It's why SpaceX, combining Falcon, Starship, and Starlink, sits at the center. But the thesis has a flip side: rivals racing to own their own launch reduce that toll power over time. The bank frames space as a new industrial pillar, not a niche. Watch whether launch stays a bottleneck or becomes a crowd.

Follow the M&A. Goldman flagged that expanding public-market activity could fuel space-sector consolidation. The moves are already happening. Rocket Lab is buying Iridium to become a "self-launching tier 1 space power." AST SpaceMobile is seeking greater launch control. Firefly deepened vertical integration by acquiring Space-ng. The pattern is clear: own more of the chain, depend on rivals less. Watch which mid-size names get bought next.

A reality check on the hype. Beyond Morningstar's $62 fair value on SPCX, other independent models land well below the IPO's $1.77 trillion valuation — one widely cited discounted-cash-flow estimate put fair value near $1.22 trillion, and Morningstar's company-wide figure came in around $780 billion. The gap between banks and independents is the whole story. One prices the dream, the other the cash. Watch which side the next quarter favors.

Circle September. That's when talk meets receipts.

Here's the setup. Musk told staff that SpaceX's AI revenue will pass all its other revenue combined within weeks. The rest of the business generates roughly $5 billion a quarter. So this isn't a vague vision. It's a number the company will either clear or miss, and soon.

Why does that matter so much?

Because the entire bull case rests on the AI leg. Goldman's own model sees only about $15.6 billion in AI revenue for all of 2026, far below the run rate Musk implies. So September is a direct test of whose number is closer to reality.

The stakes cut both ways. If AI revenue truly leaps past the rest of the business, the bulls look right and the discount on the AI arm should shrink. If it falls short, the Morningstar bears get their proof, and the recent rally looks stretched.

There's a nearer signpost too. Another block of insider shares is set to unlock later this month. More tradable supply can pressure the price, regardless of the story.

And Grok, the AI at the center of it all, still trails leading models on several benchmarks. That's the gap the company has to close to justify the valuation.

So watch September. It turns a war of forecasts into a simple question of what the AI arm actually earned.

Let's keep this simple.

Goldman says the space economy will hit $1.8 trillion. Morningstar says SpaceX stock is worth barely half its price. Those sound like they can't both be true. They can. Here's why.

One is a claim about an industry. The other is a claim about a price.

Think of it like a gold rush. Everyone agrees there's real gold in the hills. That's the industry call — huge, real, growing. But it doesn't tell you whether any single miner's shares are a good buy at today's price. That depends on what you pay and how much that miner actually digs up.

Goldman is describing the gold in the hills. Morningstar is pricing one miner's stock.

Both can be right at once. The space economy can boom for a decade while a specific stock, bought at a rich price, still disappoints. A great industry doesn't guarantee a great investment. The entry price does much of the work.

Here's the trap to avoid. People hear "trillion-dollar industry" and assume every stock in it must soar. But if a stock already has years of that growth baked into its price, the boom can arrive and the shares can still fall. The story was true; the price was just too high.

So separate the two questions. First, is the industry real and growing? Second, is this particular stock cheap or dear right now? A yes to the first doesn't answer the second.

Follow the price you pay, not just the size of the dream.