The Biggest IPO in History Is Down 52%… And Tomorrow We Find Out Why
SpaceX closed Friday at $108.
Seven weeks ago, it traded at $225. The company was worth $2.9 trillion.
That was June.
Today, SPCX sits 52% below that peak. And 20% below its $135 IPO price. Every investor who bought on opening day is underwater.
Tomorrow… SpaceX reports its first-ever quarterly earnings as a public company.
Let me explain why that matters so much.
Analysts expect about $6.9 billion in Q2 revenue. They also expect a loss — roughly $0.26 per share. That sounds rough. But in Q1, SpaceX lost $1.27 per share.
The trend is headed the right way.
And the bull case is loud.
Morgan Stanley has a $300 target on SPCX. Cantor just backed the stock with an Overweight call. At $108, Morgan Stanley's target implies 177% upside.
That's not a small gap. It's enormous.
But here's the bear case.
August 6. Two days after earnings. That's when the first lockup window opens. About $123 billion in insider shares become free to sell. For context… that's 68 times the typical lockup block for a large-cap IPO.
I know what you're thinking. "Insiders will dump everything."
Some might. But one number matters more than the lockup.
Starlink subscribers.
SpaceX's internet business crossed 10.3 million users early this year. It pulled in $11.4 billion in 2025 — 61% of all SpaceX revenue. Quilty Space projects that subscriber count to reach 16.8 million by December. That means 63% growth in five months.
It's the whole engine.
And there's a kicker coming in October. Google starts paying SpaceX $920 million a month for access to 110,000 Nvidia GPUs housed in SpaceX data centers. That's roughly $11 billion a year. It won't show up in tomorrow's Q2 numbers. But it rewrites the math for the second half of 2026.
So here's the question: do you buy a stock that's down 52%, still losing cash, and two days away from a historic share unlock? Or do you wait for October, when the Google money arrives?
Morgan Stanley says buy now. The stock says not yet.
We'll know more by Tuesday.
Where should you invest $100 right now?
Elon Musk just invented and patented this new AI technology…
And he's predicting it will launch a NEW industry that will grow more than 7 million percent in the coming years.
Even if he's only 10% right, that would still be enough to grow $100 into more than $700,000.
Amazon's Starlink Rival Just Missed Its Biggest Deadline
Amazon needed 1,618 Leo satellites in orbit by July 30 to meet FCC license terms. It had about 394. The FCC granted a waiver in June but stripped spectrum priority on Gen 1 satellites launched after the deadline… while Starlink's fleet of 10,800 keeps growing.
Space Just Got Its First Earnings Season
SpaceX reports tomorrow. MDA Space follows August 7. Rocket Lab on August 10. Intuitive Machines on August 13. Four space companies in ten days — a year ago, this sector barely had one public stock worth tracking.
Intuitive Machines Locks In $148 Million NASA Lander Deal
NASA awarded LUNR a $148.3 million contract in late June to mass-produce its Nova-C moon lander — a $68.6 million base plus a $79.7 million performance bonus tied to production-line results. It's the company's sixth commercial lunar task order, and Q2 earnings land August 13.
Blue Origin Needs to Rebuild a Rocket and a Launchpad — Before December
New Glenn blew up on the pad in late May.
A static-fire test went wrong. The explosion destroyed the booster and damaged Blue Origin's only launch complex. Everyone walked away. But the schedule took a direct hit.
CEO Dave Limp said in early June that New Glenn could fly again by year's end. The explosion cracked the support tower, but crews can fix it in place. The water systems survived. And Blue Origin is already working on the next booster.
So why does this matter beyond Blue Origin?
Amazon. Its Leo satellite constellation — the Starlink rival that just missed its FCC deadline — needs New Glenn for catch-up launches. With the pad still under repair, Amazon has to lean harder on ULA's Atlas V and SpaceX's own Falcon 9.
In other words, Blue Origin's pad problem is Amazon's satellite problem too.
If New Glenn doesn't fly by December, Blue Origin loses a full year of launch credibility. And Amazon's 27-to-1 satellite gap with Starlink… gets even harder to close.
Watch the pad.
What Is a Price-to-Sales Ratio — And Why Does SpaceX Trade at 75x?
Tomorrow, analysts expect SpaceX to report about $6.9 billion in quarterly revenue. The company's market cap sits near $1.4 trillion.
Divide market cap by annual revenue. You get the price-to-sales ratio — or P/S.
For SpaceX… it's around 75.
In other words, investors pay $75 for every $1 of revenue SpaceX brings in.
Sound high? Most companies trade between 1 and 5 times sales. Apple sits near 10x. Even Tesla, at its most hyped, peaked around 30x.
SpaceX is at 75.
But P/S exists for a reason. You can't use price-to-earnings on a company with no earnings. SpaceX is still losing money. So investors look at revenue instead.
And the revenue is growing fast. Starlink made $11.4 billion in 2025. Goldman Sachs expects $15.6 billion from SpaceX's AI segment alone this year. Add Starlink growth, launch revenue, and the Google compute deal starting in October, and full-year sales could push well past $30 billion. At that level, the P/S drops to around 47.
Still pricey. But the direction matters.
Amazon traded at 30 times sales for years while it burned cash building warehouses. Investors who held on made fortunes. The bet was simple: future profits would justify today's price.
That's the same bet on SpaceX right now. Tomorrow's earnings won't settle it. But they'll show us if the math is headed the right way.
Remember: price-to-sales measures what you pay per dollar of revenue. For fast-growing companies that don't yet turn a profit, it's the most common way to judge whether a stock is cheap or expensive.
